![]() This was not the case in the 2018 midterms, suggesting even greater minority clout in the 2020 election. The latter is notable because, normally, white voters make up larger shares of midterm voters than presidential year voters due to lower midterm minority turnout. This is a rise from 23.7 percent in the 2014 midterms, and higher than the 26.7 percent in the 2016 presidential election. In 2018, nonwhite voters made up 27.2 percent of the voter population. But the recent rise in turnout for college graduate whites along with Hispanics and Asian Americans helped to engineer this shift. Changing demography has been a factor as younger generations of voting-age citizens, in particular, have become more racially diverse and better educated. Since then, the former’s share dropped to 39 percent and the latter rose to 27.2 percent. These changes make the voter population look quite different than in 2006, when noncollege whites comprised fully half of it and nonwhite minorities comprised only one-fifth. In fact, for the first time in the CPS series, “noncollege whites”-a group that strongly favors Republicans-comprised less than two-fifths of the voter population. In 2018, both factors led to a marked rise in the share of non-white voters and white college graduate voters as well as a decline in the share for white voters without college degrees. Changes in it over time reflect both changes in the demographic makeup of the citizen voting-age population and changes in turnout rates within that population. The voter population is comprised of persons who reported voting on Election Day. Noncollege white voters made up less than 40 percent of all voters From a turnout perspective, 2018 was an extraordinary year. While the above discussion highlighted sharp rises in turnout rates between 20, especially for Democratic leaning groups, the 2018 turnout rates for all groups were higher than those recorded by the Census Bureau since at least 2006 ( download Table A). The latter is especially noteworthy because, unlike in the 2016 presidential race, the younger white population voted Democratic in last November’s House race, joining their counterparts of other racial groups. The 2018 turnout-at 53.4 percent-was the highest in midterm elections since it started collecting voter turnout numbers in 1978.įocusing further on young adults, the CPS turnout data reveal that 18 to 29-year-olds of each major racial group showed substantially higher turnout in 2018 than four years prior-more than doubling for young Hispanics and Asian Americans and nearly doubling for young white citizens. And while white citizens, overall, exhibited higher turnout rates than other groups, both the turnout level and recent rise were highest for white college graduates-a group that, nationally, supported Democratic House of Representatives candidates in November’s election. Of course, older voters, ages 65 and above, continued to display the highest voter turnout levels at 66 percent but the bigger 2014 to 2018 increase among young adults served to narrow the young/old turnout gap.Īll major racial/ethnic groups turned up at the polls in higher numbers, but the biggest gains accrued to Democratic-leaning Hispanics and Asian Americans-up 13 percent since 2014. Young adults ages 18 to 29-the age group that voted most strongly Democratic-saw a rise in their turnout rate by 16 percent from 20 percent in 2014 to 36 percent in 2018. Yet, a careful look at the new data shows groups that voted Democratic last November also displayed some of the biggest increases in voter turnout. Interestingly, this surge follows the lowest midterm turnout rate in the Census Bureau’s time series-41.9 percent in 2014. ![]() Now, the Census Bureau’s estimates show that the 2018 turnout-at 53.4 percent-was the highest in midterm elections since it started collecting voter turnout numbers (voters per 100 citizens) in 1978 and for the first time since 1982, it rose above 50 percent. The turnout surge favored youth, “new minorities,” and white college gradsĮven before all the votes were counted last November, reports indicated that turnout had surged. They tell us which groups exceeded turnout expectations in 2018 and suggest that good things may be in store for Democrats in the 2020 presidential contest. ![]() These data, from the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (CPS) voting supplement, provide information not available earlier-estimates of voter turnout for key demographic groups-both nationally and for states. However, recently released data from the Census Bureau sheds new light on how this was done-with extraordinarily high levels of voter turnout among voting blocs that lean Democratic. The results of the 2018 election are well known, highlighted by the Democrats’ “blue wave” takeover of the House of Representatives and other state offices across the country.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |